Election 2014 built up - 2: the Raj of the Local goon?

the dominance of the local goon
as regional parties take over the setting of national agenda, and in turn the regional parties are dependent on smaller local players with concentrated and controllable voting blocks of few lakhs  or even thousands each, the biggest issue that many will face is the fear of the local goon. in the loot of the nation, there is a chain of command and there is a chain of terror, the biggest terror is the local goon - he (it is rarely a she) controls the local economy by threat, ensures that no commercial action takes place without his cut, ensures that no dissent of any kind happens, putting it down with absolute violence. 

collaboration of corporate greed and the local goon
this is a possibility as it is by and large happening across India already, whereby the local goon is promoted and supported by a globalized or global corporate for its greed to destroy some part of this land for its profits. the goon who is not bound to land any longer, doesn't have a problem in trading any resource for the highest global bidder

embedded press and sponsored news
more like owned press in the indian context. we know every party owns its own press and as the stakes for both sides get higher, the shrillness of the media to paint the world in 'us-white-and-them-black' colour is getting into an obsessive disorder; this is threatening the chances of survival of 'independent media' which will be an endangered species in India soon.  we have recently seen the ascend of a new form of media driven salesmanship of a leader of a region into the national mainstream, not unlike the American Presidentship. this trend may propel a new form of media clout creation where truth and search for truth will be obfuscated by the propaganda spin. 

civil society's marginalization
Anna Hazare and the Aam Aadmi Party was the best chance for a civil society to articulate its politics in India. the media didn't know what to do, Anna has the charisma and honesty, Arvind Kejriwal has the organizing skills and networking methods and he could continuously think of the box and beat the system. However, the time sought by the system was granted by these people while they could have gone for a decisive battle, in that the lacked the political wisdom to fighting to the finish, and they lost a chance. system seeks time only to re-coup, never to respond - that's a strategic lesson for those who deal with the system. 

the eventual split, media-black out and periodic cynical pieces by mainstream media personnel ensures that the civil society articulation in political space is marginalized. for a country with a large, imaginative and engaging civil society, this will be difficult, but, a combination of controlled media, obstinate bureaucracy, slow judiciary and corrupt political elements can ensure that the civil society is engaged in issues of non-politically threatening nature forever and forcibly done so.

so, whom does one vote for?
guess, i will not vote for the local goon. i find very little difference between the fundamental thinking between the current Congress and BJP. they both talk and behave similarly though they project the other as opposition. they stoop too low to seek dirt and smear on each other as they can't raise high to either bring in a different perspective or a different thinking into their work.  i do not attach much value to the secular credentials of Congress or the communal credentials of BJP. while one is trying to hide not having good leaders by projecting a one-solution-super-hero, the other has nothing to hide the lack of performance with and is using non-existent fig-leaf of imagination to hide itself. 

the kind of government we may have...
whatever kind and colour it will be, it may not behave much differently from the current one and definitely i don't see it last a full term of five years.  

Election 2014 built up -1...nothing to imagine!

alliances will govern the government 

While Congress will be judged based on the alliance it keeps, BJP will be judged on alliance it seeks.

Congress can't escape some alliance, they are too inter-connected, it can't rely on a few others, those who have high stakes to remain in power will desert if they sense Congress is a sinking ship; those that know Congress will need them badly will seed bigger favours.

BJP is driven by an ambitious man, who wants to be PM, they are more likely to compromise on principles for numbers (meaning votes) in seeking alliances. They would want some alliances rather bad, and those who know that will seek large bargains which BJP is in no position to reject; the party may have to retain some alliances out of loyalty to partners who have stuck around for long at the cost of some newer alliances.

strategies people (do / will / are likely to) play

Most regional parties will try and retain their stronghold at whatever cost so as to be able to drive a better bargain at the national level. those in power will do so through coercion, persuasive policies, doles and defaming and ensuring that there are cases against the opposition. Those not in power will try regular tactics, buy small pockets of votes from smaller leaders who can trade on votes, they will realign smaller parties to ensure that split votes cause their victory at least in a few seats if there is an unfavourable condition for themselves.

Congress can play the tough moral card, as it realizes morality is what it lacks completely; it could compromise all the partners who have tainted image, seek a makeover, re align with newer parties and  lose the election, but, gain moral high ground. however, this will effectively see several local splits and even desertion at the national level. eventually if it retains its cadre, it may regain power in a couple of years with more strength if it adopts such a stature, but, the people and courage to do that is not there (though Rahul Gandhi could).

BJP may play the tough card in seeking alliance, however, everyone knows that except for one carefully built image, there are not many mass leaders in the party, definitely at the national level. so for BJP to  play tough will be the most difficult situation. they may fall victim to several regional manipulations as long as it suits their quest for numbers, in these compromises for numbers now will be the seeds of seat sharing and alliance of corruption later on, eventually it will realize it can't govern any better than the Congress with such alliance.  but, it may not have the wisdom to deny such difficult alliances.

numbers will unite and split as well

The numbers of the collective may be counted as the basis to form the government, however, it would also ensure that the government can't do much as there will be people with smaller and smaller principle base and larger short term money base who will be 1-unit coalition members. it will be each on for themselves and many more will be seeking return of investments and this can only lead to more corrupt times. 

Cost of elections will go up this time, far more people are likely to seek money for their votes than ever before as there is a general feeling that every political party has money that they don't declare and there may be enough to go around for all. however, the disbursement of money may not have any relevance to who gets voted or booted, after all it is a secret process.

peace will suffer

Elections may also be violent as more and more people with better knowledge of the locality and no care or comprehension of the centre will be fighting in their own turf, several turf wars of the area will come to be played out.

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