Election 2014, Built up - 3: before they finish the 'semi-finals'

some of the states that are considered crucial for the 2014 election are having state assembly elections and by-polls in a few constituencies in others just now...in the next days, what is being paraded by newspapers as 'semi-finals' will be over and one can anticipate post-election re-strategy genuflect. 

some of the most important changes that are already coming up...
re-discovered 'left'? - the communist have always needed an enemy to survive, their decay in recent times was as much due to their continued support to the Congress in several years now (after the hotch-potch third front collapsed altogether) at the cost of their collective intelligence as much to do with their overall lack of direction in the uni-polar world. 

the ascend of Modi has given them a new enemy to fight and that is the best that they know. however, there seems to be a problem - the older generation of 'left' that fought street battles was different from the current lot that is equipped often with a keyboard, their mass base may not be any better than either the Congress or BJP, their ideology is as much shaped (if not more) from the western university culture as the market force perpetrating ones. there are no street warriors in the new left, this also means they don't have a collective backing of the ordinary lot. those who prefer to fight the people / street battle will be caught between the extreme case of joining the violent ones in the jungles (not such an easy choice, particularly if they are from urban backgrounds) or fight with peaceful means that have Gandhian squatters as its owners since long (Anna is not far off, Kejariwal has completely usurped the space just now). 

but, the Left is back, if not now after the elections next year. is it good for Indian politics? maybe, if it throws up some leaders. that i am not sure. but, there is always hope someone may turn up. they may even become the polarisation of all opposition in India if they play their cards well, their key downfall maybe...

the fantasy music players of the 3rd front!
the Mulayam, Mayawati,Mamta, Jayalalitha brigade - none of them have any kind of concept of the country beyond their local politics, all hate anyone opposing them, all are dependent on people that have nothing much to offer beyond a certain level. these players may be emboldened after the semi-final elections are announced (particularly if the Congress comes  cropper) and they will start their music again. only hope that the Left doesn't fall for this before the elections. if they lead this rag-tag of badly wounded images that can carry off some pretense of a coalition for one breathing cycle, they can as well kill themselves. trying to revive a 3rd front is akin to feeding viagra to dis-membered ambitions, it can't work even if it sticks.

changes in Congress...
the pradesh congress chief in tamilnadu this morning has mentioned how there has been no new district level appointments from the 'higher up' in delhi! yesterday, two factions of congress men in AP had an open battle on the streets...these daily occurrences of factionalism lead by self-interest and investment protection in Congress party will disappear if they don't make it to power in some places, perhaps good for the Congress in the long run to rid of such elements. does Rahul Gandhi have it in him to weather such a storm or will the Congress finally overcome its inherited shyness under the avalanche of Modi-powered never-before seen attack and actually work up the energy to throw over a Gandhi? both may be good for the Congress, which still has several intelligent people in the party even if half of them are gagged to sustain the poor old-pappy in the paddle. 

increasing investments on Modi shows...
several mentions are already made on the Modi shows and how they are bankrolled, it is not what is visible, it is what is invisible that counts. the tired corporate elements see a new hero like they see a new emerging cricketer to replace an old one as their icon and ambassador, endorsing him so that he reciprocates...the corporate driven media is going so much overboard on Modi. (he doesn't seem to have made a single politically radical and / or drastically different view so far anywhere, however, he is high on rhetoric) they give him credit gloating over gujarat and its inherent enterprise nature, almost being given credit for the gujarati-ness of all gujaratis in India, if not everywhere else in the world and since time immemorial. 

i don't find his history a problem, history is what we want to believe in and he says what he believes and the Congress can't play a reverse rhetoric on him (after all they know how much of history they have kept under wraps), they don't have a player of dramatic capacity half his size in their midst, give him his due, the man knows how to play to the crowd. i am worried about his corporate bank rolling more, how many of the already sold-out resources of the nation will be further compromised under Modi to satisfy pre-poll 'alliance' with corporate world is to be seen (assuming he romps home with all that funding help in the first place of course).

i am recording these as observations. these views are all my own and of course, i don't represent any  body except myself :-)

Election 2014 built up -1...nothing to imagine!

alliances will govern the government 

While Congress will be judged based on the alliance it keeps, BJP will be judged on alliance it seeks.

Congress can't escape some alliance, they are too inter-connected, it can't rely on a few others, those who have high stakes to remain in power will desert if they sense Congress is a sinking ship; those that know Congress will need them badly will seed bigger favours.

BJP is driven by an ambitious man, who wants to be PM, they are more likely to compromise on principles for numbers (meaning votes) in seeking alliances. They would want some alliances rather bad, and those who know that will seek large bargains which BJP is in no position to reject; the party may have to retain some alliances out of loyalty to partners who have stuck around for long at the cost of some newer alliances.

strategies people (do / will / are likely to) play

Most regional parties will try and retain their stronghold at whatever cost so as to be able to drive a better bargain at the national level. those in power will do so through coercion, persuasive policies, doles and defaming and ensuring that there are cases against the opposition. Those not in power will try regular tactics, buy small pockets of votes from smaller leaders who can trade on votes, they will realign smaller parties to ensure that split votes cause their victory at least in a few seats if there is an unfavourable condition for themselves.

Congress can play the tough moral card, as it realizes morality is what it lacks completely; it could compromise all the partners who have tainted image, seek a makeover, re align with newer parties and  lose the election, but, gain moral high ground. however, this will effectively see several local splits and even desertion at the national level. eventually if it retains its cadre, it may regain power in a couple of years with more strength if it adopts such a stature, but, the people and courage to do that is not there (though Rahul Gandhi could).

BJP may play the tough card in seeking alliance, however, everyone knows that except for one carefully built image, there are not many mass leaders in the party, definitely at the national level. so for BJP to  play tough will be the most difficult situation. they may fall victim to several regional manipulations as long as it suits their quest for numbers, in these compromises for numbers now will be the seeds of seat sharing and alliance of corruption later on, eventually it will realize it can't govern any better than the Congress with such alliance.  but, it may not have the wisdom to deny such difficult alliances.

numbers will unite and split as well

The numbers of the collective may be counted as the basis to form the government, however, it would also ensure that the government can't do much as there will be people with smaller and smaller principle base and larger short term money base who will be 1-unit coalition members. it will be each on for themselves and many more will be seeking return of investments and this can only lead to more corrupt times. 

Cost of elections will go up this time, far more people are likely to seek money for their votes than ever before as there is a general feeling that every political party has money that they don't declare and there may be enough to go around for all. however, the disbursement of money may not have any relevance to who gets voted or booted, after all it is a secret process.

peace will suffer

Elections may also be violent as more and more people with better knowledge of the locality and no care or comprehension of the centre will be fighting in their own turf, several turf wars of the area will come to be played out.

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