Soul Searching about Pakistan

Among the crowd of writings that have emerged since the Pakistan emergency, the following one caught my eye. I think we need more sincere analysis of the situation and not be carried away by statements of Ms. Rice and others from the US Government. It has been repeatedly stated in the news reports that the current state of Emergency was declared with the blessings of the US Government and with the co-option of Benazir. I personally suspect that the noises being made about the 'Pak Nuclear Arms falling in wrong hands' is pressure sales man tactics being applied on the Indian Government for the Nuclear Deal. It has already surfaced in the media. Unless the Pakistan State is dis-engaged from the American War On Terrorism, it looks unlikely that the state will remain stable. We have had the world tell us repeatedly that Kashmir is the prime issue for normalizing Indo-Pak relations, I think now we need to state that the delinking of Pakistan state from sustaining the American Supremacist P(r)ogram(me) is essential for Peace in Pakistan and normal relations with any of its neighbours including India.

"It is easy to condemn the imposition of yet another martial law by Musharraf. But I have yet to see one iota of solution coming out from any brilliant, or dumb, analyst on how to deal with the situation that has developed in Pakistan over the last seven years. It is always easy for liberal democrats to abuse the men in uniform. That is easy, and highly popular among the English-speaking middle class in Pakistan. But, the crisis in Pakistan today is a direct result of the US' and NATO's ( the bastions of democratic world) insane policies in Afghanistan. To begin with, bombing of southern, central and eastern Afghan villages killing innocent civilians, who happen to be Pushtuns, has eradicated the distinction between the Taliban and Pushtruns. The so-called Taliban and the other bad guys have long moved over to Pakistan's FATA, Balochistan and northern territories waiting for the "foreign troops" to leave. In Afghanistan, of course, everytime a Pushtun get killed, the individual is labeled as a "Taliban" by the West. That sells well in West, but neither in Afghanistan nor in Pakistan.

The situation in adjoining Pushtun areas in Pakistan is no different. Americans and the Europeans -- the old colonial guys with white skin-- have arrived again to take control of Afghanistan. This time they are waving Bernard Lewis' books to justify their arrival. They are taking care of evil Islam, that is what the invaders say.

The mistake that Islamabad made, and now Benazir and the other liberal democrats have plunged right in, is to agree to the war on terror when it was known in 2001 that in order to succeed in this venture, the Pakistani army will be needed to wage a full-fledged war against its own people. That was a huge mistake, and the Americans, Europeans and all those Pakistanis who hate "bearded lunatics", joined in this false campaign. And, most disgustingly, even today they do not point out that Pakistan west of River Indus may well merge with Afghanistan in its fight against the US, NATO and Islamabad because these Pakistanis have been identified as enemies of Pakistan and the west..

The result is the threat of a breakdown of Pakistan's military-- the only institution that the Pakistanis reach out for when kleptocrats and fundie-appeasers move in and make mess things up royally.

In other words, the crisis that has been created by the United States and NATO, and because of Musharraf's willingness to go along with it, hoping he would be able to outsmart them, is huge. Hugging Benazir Bhutto, or democracy, will not do. It is time the Pakistani literates stop their knee-jerk reactions and address the source of this crisis for a constructive future.. - Ramatanu Maitra in the South Asia Discussion Group

Pakistan Emergency: Desperate attempt to sustain control by a losing General

I had earlier blogged that there is a change in the offing in Pakistan. Since then things have changed rather rapidly. The orchestrated returns of Nawaz and Benazir and its political implications and currently the declaration of emergency is certainly a cause for concern for us in India. That the General after making repeated promises of shedding his uniform after the Presidential elections dons it immediately only indicates his desperation to sustain his position. Indeed there is no further confirmation required on his situation than his statement yesterday to the nation. He is losing and well aware of it and this move is to sustain himself before he takes personal measures to negotiate his safe exile and political measures to ensure his safe exit from the country.

What India needs to worry about is what after Musharaf? Who will come to power? The army has been ruled by the General carefully enough to ensure there are no more of his own likes in their ranks. There are a few old ISI bosses who perhaps may be powerful, but, they may not be good enough to run the government. I suspect that the support of the Chief Justice may not run beyond the cities. The political parties may have some popular support, particularly the PPP if one goes by the crowds that welcomed Benazir home. But, who will become the most important political player after Musharaf in Pakistan?

My gut feel is we are seeing a micro clash of civilizations in Pakistan. The clash will be between the pursuit of American strategic interest by the government of USA (and increasingly maybe China) against the creation (or sustenance) and expansion of the militant Islamic power that the larger global terrorist outfits will like to see. Whomsoever will rule will have to balance both elements as the pressure from both sides may be significant. Perhaps not that insignificant will be to win the mandate from the people in the pursuit of either of the above agenda or for balancing both. Pakistan has been always ruled by strong individual egos or global political power priorities. I see fighting India as an expression of the ego and the supply of weapons to fight India as someone else's global necessity. The wounds of partition need not last beyond a generation and there is no need to carry it for so long.

The worry for India will be if Pakistan powers gets to continue with an appeasement of the militant Islam outfits and / or US interests. With the Nuclear deal bringing a new found thrust into missile development in India, in a matter of years similar privileges will be extended to Pakistan by the government of USA (or by China even earlier) and if there is no leadership that can assert itself as a people representative in Pakistan, then Pakistani people are in for even more tough times. Their acceptance of the situation is reflected in a recent news that caught my eye.

"A poll in August conducted for the Washington-based nonprofit group Terror Free Tomorrow found that 19 percent of Pakistanis held a favorable view of the United States, down from 26 percent the previous year. Osama bin Laden had a far higher approval rating, at 46 percent, than either Musharraf (38 percent) or President Bush (9 percent)."

Our MEA office has been strangely rather guarded in its response to the emergency. I think India should at this point in time look at Pakistan more than ever as a rogue state. While the General is negotiating his way out, India should play an active role in promoting democracy, if need be even appealing the new friends in the USA for democratic process be established there. This is not the time for 'this is their internal issue' kind of statements is my reading.