Elections 2014, Built up - 5: AAP Delhi and after...

when a small group of persons challenge the status quo, all those who have benefited from the status quo will raise up and try to defeat them.

AAP has challenged the status quo in times when the only visible and most vocal persons who dominate the public discourse are those who have benefited from the status quo.

the supporters of AAP are those who watch the tamasha of the status quo-ists while retaining their own personal good will, aspirations and hopes pinned to AAP. they will even watch the lynching of AAP in the popular visual media, the shouting down of the AAPs meek and often mediocre presentations and defenders below the first layer of their leadership. however, the supporters are the people who sell chai today, they are the taxi drivers, richshaw pullers, bus drivers, railway workers, street vendors, school teachers, young IT professionals, farmers, housewives...the invisible constituency of Indian voters who will not join the cacophony of the status-quoists and silently send their message on the day of elections.

the biggest mistake for either the Congress or BJP is to estimate that the issues represented by AAP are now well and truly forgotten because they are no longer in power. The 'power-centric' view normally held by conventional politicians will make them believe that the aam aadmi has as limited a memory as they wish she has. the aam aadmi now has a party and the party is anything but insomniac.

the biggest mistake that AAP can make now is to sustain the mistake it has made so far, only one and a big one - allow the media and opposition to set the pace of operation of AAP. the party needn't allow the opposition or the expectation and anticipation of the media to set up the timelines for its own achievement of Swaraj. and, to limit Swaraj to merely the JanLokpal bill will be stupid.

gandhiji said in 1947 that, 'it will atleast take 75 years for us to get rid of the mental slavery of 150 years from our body politic', we are close enough, but, it will take at least 5 years to rid of the corruption piled up over the 60+ years of the current system and understanding of governance in this country.

each and every single debate that AAP had created in the short stint in Delhi is a deep question on the way Democracy is understood and implemented in this country and has challenged those who have continued to perpetuate the same, either as a solution or as a shield for corruption -
(a) what is the de-limits of the federal government, particularly in the issue of law and order in the state?
(b) does an ordinary Minister have the same right that every Panchayat leader and any sensible person in a neighbourhood has towards his neighbourhood - to reach a scene of suspected crime, call the authorities and seek immediate action? why is it that such rights commonly displayed by ordinary citizen is seen as 'vigilante' action coming from a Minister?
(c) why can't a Chief Minister head towards meeting the federal home minister without an appointment? why is it more important to have the 'ceremonial' jingoistic show-off of a parade more important than the practice of republic?
(d) are 'mature' and 'systematic' approaches synonymous with the governance methods displayed by the UPA and NDA before? if so, why is it that the Nation has seen some of the most corrupt practices in the world in the last 15 years?
(e) why does the Federal government need to approve on a simple legislation to ensure a transparent and corruption free local government? and why does the principle opposition support this position? does it mean that both UPA and NDA agree that the control to be corrupt needs to be centralized?

it is clear, status quo nahi chalega. the imagination of how a "people-centric and corruption-free government" can be has just been raised several notches higher than what anyone in this country in living memory has seen or dared. it leaves very little fig leaves for the current incumbents and the future aspirants to cover themselves with. the more they decry and try and defame the AAP and Kejriwal in the coming days during the built up to the Lok Sabha elections, the faster they will be shedding the remaining of their covers.

Indians love to sympathize and vote for the under-dog in any competition and just now the under-dog also happens to be dharmically correct one. 

Election 2014, Built up - 4: Why does it make sense to support AAP

Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is like a whiff of fresh spring air in the otherwise mostly nauseating gutter of Indian political space.

I have not blogged since their (non)victory in Delhi in early December, in fact my last posting was the day before the Delhi results were announced and ironically, I may be posting the day before their government may fall in Delhi after all.

I was in a taxi driver's tea shop in Delhi listening to some of the taxi drivers talk to each other in a cold January morning. One of them was describing with much gestures how he went and demanded a service from a government office and when the officer didn't know how to handle a request, asked him, "if you don't know how to respond, what are you doing in this job?". this new found energy, my friendly sardar taxi driver informed me, was because of the new AAP led move to record and report all corrupt officers and the whole process being made quite easy with a toll free number to report and everyone was becoming a corruption-catcher in the city.

In an interview, when the reporter asked Arvind Kejeriwal whether such a process wouldn't lead to mayhem, he calmly replies, this is Democracy. This is amazing 'out of the box' politics that this team had indulged in that is refusing to be cowed down by all the king's men and their media trying to pull them down.

It is said of Gandhi, that the British couldn't guess what will be his next move as never was predictable. Anna Hazare's movement had that element of surprise, but, it was soon crowded and taken over by more sophisticated and educated Indians, losing touch with the common man, except when Annaji himself starts to articulate. But, Arvind and team have taken this important lesson from Anna and perhaps Gandhi of keeping the opponents (and everyone who is anyone benefiting from the status quo that these people are challenging is an opponent currently)  guessing as to what will be their next move.

Like Gandhi, the AAP team has set its goal high, in fact, the same if we go by the name 'Swaraj'. However, unlike Gandhi, they have to deal with a very vocal and loud India, where every step is followed by a vigilante media, often precluding, predicting, prejudicing the public, encouraging diverse opinions of all and sundry being thrown up for response. I don't know what Gandhi would have done in such a situation, perhaps asked Arnab to sit in silence with him during prayer hours for a week before granting him an interview!? He definitely would have come up with some 'out of the box' solutions, many that would be critiqued by his co-Congresswallas as much as AAP is today being criticised for being 'out of the box' by just about everyone.

The party has been called several names by now. But, one thing is sure, it has given the NaMo campaign, run for its money and for the first time made BJP feel that perhaps there could be an opposition. That within a month, you had both Congress and BJP admitting that their language has changed since Delhi elections is the biggest victory for the AAP, their government may not last 100 days, but, they have made a national level impact already. Both Congress and BJP leaders have acknowledged that the AAP Delhi has lessons to teach them.

Have they made mistakes? Ofcourse, they have. Will they make more mistakes? ofcourse they will. But, there was no 'horse trading' in Delhi, not a soul spoke of 'buying off' of MLAs for the first time a single majority party didn't emerge in recent years. In Democratic India, never before did so many ordinary people feel that they can also make a difference in politics and so many self-respecting individuals actually wanted to join politics. The most important aspect of the AAP impact has been the hope it has created in the midst of youth across the country. I was not old enough during the emergency and didn't know what it meant to be youth during JPs tenure, however, have heard from several people that perhaps that was the last time something equally significant happened in Indian politics. Elders place it at par with even the freedom struggle.

But the times are different - the strengthening of the ordinary citizen is also to be sensitive enough to prioritize not one but a million issues that have been waiting to be resolved through a political process for several decades. Suddenly, each one of these citizen voices that has never found strength in their supposed governments, find not just strength, but, complete liberty to demand that their issue be the first one to be resolved. And it is not just the citizen and individual, every activist, civil society member, public persona...all have their problems and now seek a solution placing the party in a great pressure situation, but, also in the process reposing their faith in a political process, party and ultimately participative and pro-active democracy.

The challenge for the party is to handle these demands and expectations. It also needs a nation full of leaders, diverse and multi-talented, but, united in being clean, corruption free and convinced and committed to the cause of a Swaraj ideal. An ideal that has its roots not merely in the Gandhian articulation, but, deeper into the very psyche of the Indian aadmi (aurat).

Their few policy confrontations, such as rejecting FDI in retail and asking for police control with the state have all been portrayed negatively by the Congress. While the anointed PM for their party is going around talking of Panchayat system of devolution of power, not realizing the contradiction is so deep rooted in his own party. As a party and a government facing the writing on the wall, the UPA has resorted to what conquerors have always done at the time of retracting - set up a process of destruction which makes the job of governance and re-construction for the new incumbent that much more difficult. Moily as the environment minister seems to have become an unlikely lead on this one (perhaps to make up for the loss of DMK representatives who have unsurpassed record of corruption within the UPA).

Perhaps the biggest, most vicious, vocal opposition to AAP and Kejriwal has come from the BJP, which suddenly sees a threat. A threat to its moral bastion (till AAP came) of 'nationalism'. AAP has combined nationalism with an issue - that of corruption and more later, whereas BJP had used nationalism alongside an identity. While identity emphasis required them to boost emotional appeal and breast beating political machismo, the issue related nationalism doesn't need such 'show' to perpetuate or popularize. The very fact that the NaMo roadshow is necessary for BJP along side a Congress like compulsion to negotiate with several political parties of dubious pasts and suspicious leaders, means that the BJP is not confident of a clean majority. I had blogged earlier that the BJP will be far more desperate in its bid to find allies, AAP has reduced its negotiation power with allies and made its job even more difficult and thereby allies even more expensive.

The invisible Left is another major loser of moral space to the AAP, many in the Left have joined the AAP in their localities and / or providing silent support from the sidelines as they see any activist movement that can get stronger in the political space as an extension of themselves.

In the long run, I see the emergence of AAP as the final comeuppance of national political parties in India. I see a change being forced on all political parties, particularly the Congress and the Left. BJP and AAP maybe the only parties left in the coming times. One will continue to do 'identity' based politics and other 'issue' based politics. One will place the idea of India, an idea of India as a burden on people and will tow the line of global corporate on all other issues. The other will place the issue of the people and their methods and means of engagement above all identity politics and will perhaps be more closer to the people. Congress may disappear, I hope it does, it would have fulfilled the desire of Mahatma of 1936 when he said that the party has to be disbanded. The Left too will have to seriously think how is it relevant in the new India, in a time when ideology has been given a pass and identity and issues start to rule the idea of governance. Drawing from global examples won't do in governance of other Left's elsewhere, in the era of internet, principles and practices would already be adopted sans the ideology or they would be countered and proved irrelevant in the Indian context.

In the coming election, I would vote for AAP sure. Even better, for the first time I believe that it could be within my power to even influence who can be a candidate in a political party if I am able to spare the time and effort. This for me is a major shift. I will ensure that whatever I can to help AAP to stay simple, local and addressing the last man and women, I better do. It is a commitment for a better future, and, to not take this responsibility is to not be sensitive to the hope and the air of freshness that AAP brings to Indian public space.

It does make sense to support AAP, it makes more sense to actively participate in their party work.

Election 2014 built up - 2: the Raj of the Local goon?

the dominance of the local goon
as regional parties take over the setting of national agenda, and in turn the regional parties are dependent on smaller local players with concentrated and controllable voting blocks of few lakhs  or even thousands each, the biggest issue that many will face is the fear of the local goon. in the loot of the nation, there is a chain of command and there is a chain of terror, the biggest terror is the local goon - he (it is rarely a she) controls the local economy by threat, ensures that no commercial action takes place without his cut, ensures that no dissent of any kind happens, putting it down with absolute violence. 

collaboration of corporate greed and the local goon
this is a possibility as it is by and large happening across India already, whereby the local goon is promoted and supported by a globalized or global corporate for its greed to destroy some part of this land for its profits. the goon who is not bound to land any longer, doesn't have a problem in trading any resource for the highest global bidder

embedded press and sponsored news
more like owned press in the indian context. we know every party owns its own press and as the stakes for both sides get higher, the shrillness of the media to paint the world in 'us-white-and-them-black' colour is getting into an obsessive disorder; this is threatening the chances of survival of 'independent media' which will be an endangered species in India soon.  we have recently seen the ascend of a new form of media driven salesmanship of a leader of a region into the national mainstream, not unlike the American Presidentship. this trend may propel a new form of media clout creation where truth and search for truth will be obfuscated by the propaganda spin. 

civil society's marginalization
Anna Hazare and the Aam Aadmi Party was the best chance for a civil society to articulate its politics in India. the media didn't know what to do, Anna has the charisma and honesty, Arvind Kejriwal has the organizing skills and networking methods and he could continuously think of the box and beat the system. However, the time sought by the system was granted by these people while they could have gone for a decisive battle, in that the lacked the political wisdom to fighting to the finish, and they lost a chance. system seeks time only to re-coup, never to respond - that's a strategic lesson for those who deal with the system. 

the eventual split, media-black out and periodic cynical pieces by mainstream media personnel ensures that the civil society articulation in political space is marginalized. for a country with a large, imaginative and engaging civil society, this will be difficult, but, a combination of controlled media, obstinate bureaucracy, slow judiciary and corrupt political elements can ensure that the civil society is engaged in issues of non-politically threatening nature forever and forcibly done so.

so, whom does one vote for?
guess, i will not vote for the local goon. i find very little difference between the fundamental thinking between the current Congress and BJP. they both talk and behave similarly though they project the other as opposition. they stoop too low to seek dirt and smear on each other as they can't raise high to either bring in a different perspective or a different thinking into their work.  i do not attach much value to the secular credentials of Congress or the communal credentials of BJP. while one is trying to hide not having good leaders by projecting a one-solution-super-hero, the other has nothing to hide the lack of performance with and is using non-existent fig-leaf of imagination to hide itself. 

the kind of government we may have...
whatever kind and colour it will be, it may not behave much differently from the current one and definitely i don't see it last a full term of five years.  

Election 2014 built up -1...nothing to imagine!

alliances will govern the government 

While Congress will be judged based on the alliance it keeps, BJP will be judged on alliance it seeks.

Congress can't escape some alliance, they are too inter-connected, it can't rely on a few others, those who have high stakes to remain in power will desert if they sense Congress is a sinking ship; those that know Congress will need them badly will seed bigger favours.

BJP is driven by an ambitious man, who wants to be PM, they are more likely to compromise on principles for numbers (meaning votes) in seeking alliances. They would want some alliances rather bad, and those who know that will seek large bargains which BJP is in no position to reject; the party may have to retain some alliances out of loyalty to partners who have stuck around for long at the cost of some newer alliances.

strategies people (do / will / are likely to) play

Most regional parties will try and retain their stronghold at whatever cost so as to be able to drive a better bargain at the national level. those in power will do so through coercion, persuasive policies, doles and defaming and ensuring that there are cases against the opposition. Those not in power will try regular tactics, buy small pockets of votes from smaller leaders who can trade on votes, they will realign smaller parties to ensure that split votes cause their victory at least in a few seats if there is an unfavourable condition for themselves.

Congress can play the tough moral card, as it realizes morality is what it lacks completely; it could compromise all the partners who have tainted image, seek a makeover, re align with newer parties and  lose the election, but, gain moral high ground. however, this will effectively see several local splits and even desertion at the national level. eventually if it retains its cadre, it may regain power in a couple of years with more strength if it adopts such a stature, but, the people and courage to do that is not there (though Rahul Gandhi could).

BJP may play the tough card in seeking alliance, however, everyone knows that except for one carefully built image, there are not many mass leaders in the party, definitely at the national level. so for BJP to  play tough will be the most difficult situation. they may fall victim to several regional manipulations as long as it suits their quest for numbers, in these compromises for numbers now will be the seeds of seat sharing and alliance of corruption later on, eventually it will realize it can't govern any better than the Congress with such alliance.  but, it may not have the wisdom to deny such difficult alliances.

numbers will unite and split as well

The numbers of the collective may be counted as the basis to form the government, however, it would also ensure that the government can't do much as there will be people with smaller and smaller principle base and larger short term money base who will be 1-unit coalition members. it will be each on for themselves and many more will be seeking return of investments and this can only lead to more corrupt times. 

Cost of elections will go up this time, far more people are likely to seek money for their votes than ever before as there is a general feeling that every political party has money that they don't declare and there may be enough to go around for all. however, the disbursement of money may not have any relevance to who gets voted or booted, after all it is a secret process.

peace will suffer

Elections may also be violent as more and more people with better knowledge of the locality and no care or comprehension of the centre will be fighting in their own turf, several turf wars of the area will come to be played out.

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