Elections 2014, Built up - 5: AAP Delhi and after...

when a small group of persons challenge the status quo, all those who have benefited from the status quo will raise up and try to defeat them.

AAP has challenged the status quo in times when the only visible and most vocal persons who dominate the public discourse are those who have benefited from the status quo.

the supporters of AAP are those who watch the tamasha of the status quo-ists while retaining their own personal good will, aspirations and hopes pinned to AAP. they will even watch the lynching of AAP in the popular visual media, the shouting down of the AAPs meek and often mediocre presentations and defenders below the first layer of their leadership. however, the supporters are the people who sell chai today, they are the taxi drivers, richshaw pullers, bus drivers, railway workers, street vendors, school teachers, young IT professionals, farmers, housewives...the invisible constituency of Indian voters who will not join the cacophony of the status-quoists and silently send their message on the day of elections.

the biggest mistake for either the Congress or BJP is to estimate that the issues represented by AAP are now well and truly forgotten because they are no longer in power. The 'power-centric' view normally held by conventional politicians will make them believe that the aam aadmi has as limited a memory as they wish she has. the aam aadmi now has a party and the party is anything but insomniac.

the biggest mistake that AAP can make now is to sustain the mistake it has made so far, only one and a big one - allow the media and opposition to set the pace of operation of AAP. the party needn't allow the opposition or the expectation and anticipation of the media to set up the timelines for its own achievement of Swaraj. and, to limit Swaraj to merely the JanLokpal bill will be stupid.

gandhiji said in 1947 that, 'it will atleast take 75 years for us to get rid of the mental slavery of 150 years from our body politic', we are close enough, but, it will take at least 5 years to rid of the corruption piled up over the 60+ years of the current system and understanding of governance in this country.

each and every single debate that AAP had created in the short stint in Delhi is a deep question on the way Democracy is understood and implemented in this country and has challenged those who have continued to perpetuate the same, either as a solution or as a shield for corruption -
(a) what is the de-limits of the federal government, particularly in the issue of law and order in the state?
(b) does an ordinary Minister have the same right that every Panchayat leader and any sensible person in a neighbourhood has towards his neighbourhood - to reach a scene of suspected crime, call the authorities and seek immediate action? why is it that such rights commonly displayed by ordinary citizen is seen as 'vigilante' action coming from a Minister?
(c) why can't a Chief Minister head towards meeting the federal home minister without an appointment? why is it more important to have the 'ceremonial' jingoistic show-off of a parade more important than the practice of republic?
(d) are 'mature' and 'systematic' approaches synonymous with the governance methods displayed by the UPA and NDA before? if so, why is it that the Nation has seen some of the most corrupt practices in the world in the last 15 years?
(e) why does the Federal government need to approve on a simple legislation to ensure a transparent and corruption free local government? and why does the principle opposition support this position? does it mean that both UPA and NDA agree that the control to be corrupt needs to be centralized?

it is clear, status quo nahi chalega. the imagination of how a "people-centric and corruption-free government" can be has just been raised several notches higher than what anyone in this country in living memory has seen or dared. it leaves very little fig leaves for the current incumbents and the future aspirants to cover themselves with. the more they decry and try and defame the AAP and Kejriwal in the coming days during the built up to the Lok Sabha elections, the faster they will be shedding the remaining of their covers.

Indians love to sympathize and vote for the under-dog in any competition and just now the under-dog also happens to be dharmically correct one. 

Election 2014, Built up - 4: Why does it make sense to support AAP

Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is like a whiff of fresh spring air in the otherwise mostly nauseating gutter of Indian political space.

I have not blogged since their (non)victory in Delhi in early December, in fact my last posting was the day before the Delhi results were announced and ironically, I may be posting the day before their government may fall in Delhi after all.

I was in a taxi driver's tea shop in Delhi listening to some of the taxi drivers talk to each other in a cold January morning. One of them was describing with much gestures how he went and demanded a service from a government office and when the officer didn't know how to handle a request, asked him, "if you don't know how to respond, what are you doing in this job?". this new found energy, my friendly sardar taxi driver informed me, was because of the new AAP led move to record and report all corrupt officers and the whole process being made quite easy with a toll free number to report and everyone was becoming a corruption-catcher in the city.

In an interview, when the reporter asked Arvind Kejeriwal whether such a process wouldn't lead to mayhem, he calmly replies, this is Democracy. This is amazing 'out of the box' politics that this team had indulged in that is refusing to be cowed down by all the king's men and their media trying to pull them down.

It is said of Gandhi, that the British couldn't guess what will be his next move as never was predictable. Anna Hazare's movement had that element of surprise, but, it was soon crowded and taken over by more sophisticated and educated Indians, losing touch with the common man, except when Annaji himself starts to articulate. But, Arvind and team have taken this important lesson from Anna and perhaps Gandhi of keeping the opponents (and everyone who is anyone benefiting from the status quo that these people are challenging is an opponent currently)  guessing as to what will be their next move.

Like Gandhi, the AAP team has set its goal high, in fact, the same if we go by the name 'Swaraj'. However, unlike Gandhi, they have to deal with a very vocal and loud India, where every step is followed by a vigilante media, often precluding, predicting, prejudicing the public, encouraging diverse opinions of all and sundry being thrown up for response. I don't know what Gandhi would have done in such a situation, perhaps asked Arnab to sit in silence with him during prayer hours for a week before granting him an interview!? He definitely would have come up with some 'out of the box' solutions, many that would be critiqued by his co-Congresswallas as much as AAP is today being criticised for being 'out of the box' by just about everyone.

The party has been called several names by now. But, one thing is sure, it has given the NaMo campaign, run for its money and for the first time made BJP feel that perhaps there could be an opposition. That within a month, you had both Congress and BJP admitting that their language has changed since Delhi elections is the biggest victory for the AAP, their government may not last 100 days, but, they have made a national level impact already. Both Congress and BJP leaders have acknowledged that the AAP Delhi has lessons to teach them.

Have they made mistakes? Ofcourse, they have. Will they make more mistakes? ofcourse they will. But, there was no 'horse trading' in Delhi, not a soul spoke of 'buying off' of MLAs for the first time a single majority party didn't emerge in recent years. In Democratic India, never before did so many ordinary people feel that they can also make a difference in politics and so many self-respecting individuals actually wanted to join politics. The most important aspect of the AAP impact has been the hope it has created in the midst of youth across the country. I was not old enough during the emergency and didn't know what it meant to be youth during JPs tenure, however, have heard from several people that perhaps that was the last time something equally significant happened in Indian politics. Elders place it at par with even the freedom struggle.

But the times are different - the strengthening of the ordinary citizen is also to be sensitive enough to prioritize not one but a million issues that have been waiting to be resolved through a political process for several decades. Suddenly, each one of these citizen voices that has never found strength in their supposed governments, find not just strength, but, complete liberty to demand that their issue be the first one to be resolved. And it is not just the citizen and individual, every activist, civil society member, public persona...all have their problems and now seek a solution placing the party in a great pressure situation, but, also in the process reposing their faith in a political process, party and ultimately participative and pro-active democracy.

The challenge for the party is to handle these demands and expectations. It also needs a nation full of leaders, diverse and multi-talented, but, united in being clean, corruption free and convinced and committed to the cause of a Swaraj ideal. An ideal that has its roots not merely in the Gandhian articulation, but, deeper into the very psyche of the Indian aadmi (aurat).

Their few policy confrontations, such as rejecting FDI in retail and asking for police control with the state have all been portrayed negatively by the Congress. While the anointed PM for their party is going around talking of Panchayat system of devolution of power, not realizing the contradiction is so deep rooted in his own party. As a party and a government facing the writing on the wall, the UPA has resorted to what conquerors have always done at the time of retracting - set up a process of destruction which makes the job of governance and re-construction for the new incumbent that much more difficult. Moily as the environment minister seems to have become an unlikely lead on this one (perhaps to make up for the loss of DMK representatives who have unsurpassed record of corruption within the UPA).

Perhaps the biggest, most vicious, vocal opposition to AAP and Kejriwal has come from the BJP, which suddenly sees a threat. A threat to its moral bastion (till AAP came) of 'nationalism'. AAP has combined nationalism with an issue - that of corruption and more later, whereas BJP had used nationalism alongside an identity. While identity emphasis required them to boost emotional appeal and breast beating political machismo, the issue related nationalism doesn't need such 'show' to perpetuate or popularize. The very fact that the NaMo roadshow is necessary for BJP along side a Congress like compulsion to negotiate with several political parties of dubious pasts and suspicious leaders, means that the BJP is not confident of a clean majority. I had blogged earlier that the BJP will be far more desperate in its bid to find allies, AAP has reduced its negotiation power with allies and made its job even more difficult and thereby allies even more expensive.

The invisible Left is another major loser of moral space to the AAP, many in the Left have joined the AAP in their localities and / or providing silent support from the sidelines as they see any activist movement that can get stronger in the political space as an extension of themselves.

In the long run, I see the emergence of AAP as the final comeuppance of national political parties in India. I see a change being forced on all political parties, particularly the Congress and the Left. BJP and AAP maybe the only parties left in the coming times. One will continue to do 'identity' based politics and other 'issue' based politics. One will place the idea of India, an idea of India as a burden on people and will tow the line of global corporate on all other issues. The other will place the issue of the people and their methods and means of engagement above all identity politics and will perhaps be more closer to the people. Congress may disappear, I hope it does, it would have fulfilled the desire of Mahatma of 1936 when he said that the party has to be disbanded. The Left too will have to seriously think how is it relevant in the new India, in a time when ideology has been given a pass and identity and issues start to rule the idea of governance. Drawing from global examples won't do in governance of other Left's elsewhere, in the era of internet, principles and practices would already be adopted sans the ideology or they would be countered and proved irrelevant in the Indian context.

In the coming election, I would vote for AAP sure. Even better, for the first time I believe that it could be within my power to even influence who can be a candidate in a political party if I am able to spare the time and effort. This for me is a major shift. I will ensure that whatever I can to help AAP to stay simple, local and addressing the last man and women, I better do. It is a commitment for a better future, and, to not take this responsibility is to not be sensitive to the hope and the air of freshness that AAP brings to Indian public space.

It does make sense to support AAP, it makes more sense to actively participate in their party work.

Election 2014, Built up - 3: before they finish the 'semi-finals'

some of the states that are considered crucial for the 2014 election are having state assembly elections and by-polls in a few constituencies in others just now...in the next days, what is being paraded by newspapers as 'semi-finals' will be over and one can anticipate post-election re-strategy genuflect. 

some of the most important changes that are already coming up...
re-discovered 'left'? - the communist have always needed an enemy to survive, their decay in recent times was as much due to their continued support to the Congress in several years now (after the hotch-potch third front collapsed altogether) at the cost of their collective intelligence as much to do with their overall lack of direction in the uni-polar world. 

the ascend of Modi has given them a new enemy to fight and that is the best that they know. however, there seems to be a problem - the older generation of 'left' that fought street battles was different from the current lot that is equipped often with a keyboard, their mass base may not be any better than either the Congress or BJP, their ideology is as much shaped (if not more) from the western university culture as the market force perpetrating ones. there are no street warriors in the new left, this also means they don't have a collective backing of the ordinary lot. those who prefer to fight the people / street battle will be caught between the extreme case of joining the violent ones in the jungles (not such an easy choice, particularly if they are from urban backgrounds) or fight with peaceful means that have Gandhian squatters as its owners since long (Anna is not far off, Kejariwal has completely usurped the space just now). 

but, the Left is back, if not now after the elections next year. is it good for Indian politics? maybe, if it throws up some leaders. that i am not sure. but, there is always hope someone may turn up. they may even become the polarisation of all opposition in India if they play their cards well, their key downfall maybe...

the fantasy music players of the 3rd front!
the Mulayam, Mayawati,Mamta, Jayalalitha brigade - none of them have any kind of concept of the country beyond their local politics, all hate anyone opposing them, all are dependent on people that have nothing much to offer beyond a certain level. these players may be emboldened after the semi-final elections are announced (particularly if the Congress comes  cropper) and they will start their music again. only hope that the Left doesn't fall for this before the elections. if they lead this rag-tag of badly wounded images that can carry off some pretense of a coalition for one breathing cycle, they can as well kill themselves. trying to revive a 3rd front is akin to feeding viagra to dis-membered ambitions, it can't work even if it sticks.

changes in Congress...
the pradesh congress chief in tamilnadu this morning has mentioned how there has been no new district level appointments from the 'higher up' in delhi! yesterday, two factions of congress men in AP had an open battle on the streets...these daily occurrences of factionalism lead by self-interest and investment protection in Congress party will disappear if they don't make it to power in some places, perhaps good for the Congress in the long run to rid of such elements. does Rahul Gandhi have it in him to weather such a storm or will the Congress finally overcome its inherited shyness under the avalanche of Modi-powered never-before seen attack and actually work up the energy to throw over a Gandhi? both may be good for the Congress, which still has several intelligent people in the party even if half of them are gagged to sustain the poor old-pappy in the paddle. 

increasing investments on Modi shows...
several mentions are already made on the Modi shows and how they are bankrolled, it is not what is visible, it is what is invisible that counts. the tired corporate elements see a new hero like they see a new emerging cricketer to replace an old one as their icon and ambassador, endorsing him so that he reciprocates...the corporate driven media is going so much overboard on Modi. (he doesn't seem to have made a single politically radical and / or drastically different view so far anywhere, however, he is high on rhetoric) they give him credit gloating over gujarat and its inherent enterprise nature, almost being given credit for the gujarati-ness of all gujaratis in India, if not everywhere else in the world and since time immemorial. 

i don't find his history a problem, history is what we want to believe in and he says what he believes and the Congress can't play a reverse rhetoric on him (after all they know how much of history they have kept under wraps), they don't have a player of dramatic capacity half his size in their midst, give him his due, the man knows how to play to the crowd. i am worried about his corporate bank rolling more, how many of the already sold-out resources of the nation will be further compromised under Modi to satisfy pre-poll 'alliance' with corporate world is to be seen (assuming he romps home with all that funding help in the first place of course).

i am recording these as observations. these views are all my own and of course, i don't represent any  body except myself :-)

Election 2014 built up - 2: the Raj of the Local goon?

the dominance of the local goon
as regional parties take over the setting of national agenda, and in turn the regional parties are dependent on smaller local players with concentrated and controllable voting blocks of few lakhs  or even thousands each, the biggest issue that many will face is the fear of the local goon. in the loot of the nation, there is a chain of command and there is a chain of terror, the biggest terror is the local goon - he (it is rarely a she) controls the local economy by threat, ensures that no commercial action takes place without his cut, ensures that no dissent of any kind happens, putting it down with absolute violence. 

collaboration of corporate greed and the local goon
this is a possibility as it is by and large happening across India already, whereby the local goon is promoted and supported by a globalized or global corporate for its greed to destroy some part of this land for its profits. the goon who is not bound to land any longer, doesn't have a problem in trading any resource for the highest global bidder

embedded press and sponsored news
more like owned press in the indian context. we know every party owns its own press and as the stakes for both sides get higher, the shrillness of the media to paint the world in 'us-white-and-them-black' colour is getting into an obsessive disorder; this is threatening the chances of survival of 'independent media' which will be an endangered species in India soon.  we have recently seen the ascend of a new form of media driven salesmanship of a leader of a region into the national mainstream, not unlike the American Presidentship. this trend may propel a new form of media clout creation where truth and search for truth will be obfuscated by the propaganda spin. 

civil society's marginalization
Anna Hazare and the Aam Aadmi Party was the best chance for a civil society to articulate its politics in India. the media didn't know what to do, Anna has the charisma and honesty, Arvind Kejriwal has the organizing skills and networking methods and he could continuously think of the box and beat the system. However, the time sought by the system was granted by these people while they could have gone for a decisive battle, in that the lacked the political wisdom to fighting to the finish, and they lost a chance. system seeks time only to re-coup, never to respond - that's a strategic lesson for those who deal with the system. 

the eventual split, media-black out and periodic cynical pieces by mainstream media personnel ensures that the civil society articulation in political space is marginalized. for a country with a large, imaginative and engaging civil society, this will be difficult, but, a combination of controlled media, obstinate bureaucracy, slow judiciary and corrupt political elements can ensure that the civil society is engaged in issues of non-politically threatening nature forever and forcibly done so.

so, whom does one vote for?
guess, i will not vote for the local goon. i find very little difference between the fundamental thinking between the current Congress and BJP. they both talk and behave similarly though they project the other as opposition. they stoop too low to seek dirt and smear on each other as they can't raise high to either bring in a different perspective or a different thinking into their work.  i do not attach much value to the secular credentials of Congress or the communal credentials of BJP. while one is trying to hide not having good leaders by projecting a one-solution-super-hero, the other has nothing to hide the lack of performance with and is using non-existent fig-leaf of imagination to hide itself. 

the kind of government we may have...
whatever kind and colour it will be, it may not behave much differently from the current one and definitely i don't see it last a full term of five years.  

Election 2014 built up -1...nothing to imagine!

alliances will govern the government 

While Congress will be judged based on the alliance it keeps, BJP will be judged on alliance it seeks.

Congress can't escape some alliance, they are too inter-connected, it can't rely on a few others, those who have high stakes to remain in power will desert if they sense Congress is a sinking ship; those that know Congress will need them badly will seed bigger favours.

BJP is driven by an ambitious man, who wants to be PM, they are more likely to compromise on principles for numbers (meaning votes) in seeking alliances. They would want some alliances rather bad, and those who know that will seek large bargains which BJP is in no position to reject; the party may have to retain some alliances out of loyalty to partners who have stuck around for long at the cost of some newer alliances.

strategies people (do / will / are likely to) play

Most regional parties will try and retain their stronghold at whatever cost so as to be able to drive a better bargain at the national level. those in power will do so through coercion, persuasive policies, doles and defaming and ensuring that there are cases against the opposition. Those not in power will try regular tactics, buy small pockets of votes from smaller leaders who can trade on votes, they will realign smaller parties to ensure that split votes cause their victory at least in a few seats if there is an unfavourable condition for themselves.

Congress can play the tough moral card, as it realizes morality is what it lacks completely; it could compromise all the partners who have tainted image, seek a makeover, re align with newer parties and  lose the election, but, gain moral high ground. however, this will effectively see several local splits and even desertion at the national level. eventually if it retains its cadre, it may regain power in a couple of years with more strength if it adopts such a stature, but, the people and courage to do that is not there (though Rahul Gandhi could).

BJP may play the tough card in seeking alliance, however, everyone knows that except for one carefully built image, there are not many mass leaders in the party, definitely at the national level. so for BJP to  play tough will be the most difficult situation. they may fall victim to several regional manipulations as long as it suits their quest for numbers, in these compromises for numbers now will be the seeds of seat sharing and alliance of corruption later on, eventually it will realize it can't govern any better than the Congress with such alliance.  but, it may not have the wisdom to deny such difficult alliances.

numbers will unite and split as well

The numbers of the collective may be counted as the basis to form the government, however, it would also ensure that the government can't do much as there will be people with smaller and smaller principle base and larger short term money base who will be 1-unit coalition members. it will be each on for themselves and many more will be seeking return of investments and this can only lead to more corrupt times. 

Cost of elections will go up this time, far more people are likely to seek money for their votes than ever before as there is a general feeling that every political party has money that they don't declare and there may be enough to go around for all. however, the disbursement of money may not have any relevance to who gets voted or booted, after all it is a secret process.

peace will suffer

Elections may also be violent as more and more people with better knowledge of the locality and no care or comprehension of the centre will be fighting in their own turf, several turf wars of the area will come to be played out.

 ...

Choice for the Left and the future of N-Deal!?

What is preferable - on the 'right' of America or a 'right' India?  This seems to be the CPI-M dilemma. Never given to project their own leaders as leader for the nation, they have unnecessarily created the 3rd front that will scatter votes, make even more regional, small sectarian, narrow minded political entities feel important and may eventually contribute towards a post-poll situation which would be no different from the last few times.

In a loud and self-righteous media environment, no one has posed this question to the Left yet, what is preferable for them, what is their choice. Karat and his team need to spell out whether they will side with BJP to ensure the end of the Nuclear Deal or will they go back to the old Congress in a post-poll situation giving up the Nuclear issue forever? Can they demand a different face to lead a Congress Government? Can they get the N-deal re-examined? Or will they wait and watch the group they put together be weaned through 'negotiations' in a post-poll situation by either of the two main parties while they hold their moral high and sit in the opposition for another 5 years by when the public would have forgotten the N-deal and anyway we will be too far into it to pull out?? the BJP has promised a 're-examination' of the N-Deal, whatever that means, but, would the Left side with them and provide outside support?

Congress Manifesto - small as a commercial break! and as meaningful!!

Having written about the Communist manifesto, I thought let me follow all the manifestoes released. The Congress released its manifesto earlier this evening. Seems to have been written by a young intern in an advertising agency with the scope defined as 'write anti-BJP, pro-Congress campaign material in English', the english barely manages to remain that. BJP is repeated a fewer times than Congress, the BJP should feel flattered! The put up dismissal of Third Front may prove costly. History, Common Sense, dwelling deeply in any issue and roots of any philosophy is given a go by.  This is an extended jingle written by someone who has been fed only on mass media based issues and televised earlier jingles of Congress party. 

Govt launches ad blitz to push nuke deal

Govt launches ad blitz to push nuke deal: I think this is sick! they cannot do it till the trust vote is done with in the Parliament and if this issue is one of the major election issue, then i would think such an advertisement is a built up for the elections itself. To claim as part of the advertisement that the nuclear energy is the "most efficient, environmentally cleanest and safe source of energy" is really pulling a fast one on the public.

BJP and interpreting Karnataka

This afternoon BJP is in a high and it shows.

That they will win Karnataka was a foregone conclusion for anyone interacting or travelling in that state as I have done in the last year. If they find a strong enough leader, (I am not sure it is Yedayurappa) such as Modi, Karnataka could be for keeps like Gujarat.

But, it is important not to over do this victory. It is not an entry in the southern states for BJP, they do have seizable presence in Kerala already, but, A.P. and T.N. are different ball game. T.N. has after Kamaraj never ever been ruled by a central political party. Congress pretends to have some following, but, has always done piggy back on either DMK or AIADMK. BJP followed suit. Now the plank in which the two parties built their loyal base is eroded, but, it has been fragmented among castes, the vanniyars with Ramdoss and family, the nadars with Sarath Kumar, some of the middle communities with Vijayakanth, the dalit vote being split among 2 or 3 groups each having its own strong base. T.N. with all these splits will see only coalition government in the coming elections and the national parties can only be part of these and stand to gain very little, except that they may benefit in the centre if they have more partners each that much less powerful locally (so that they don't have to put up with the pressure tactics of Karunanidhi as the UPA is doing now). BJP anyway doesn't have any great leaders in TN of the stature or popularity of the glam brigade of cine actors others parade normally.

A.P. I am not sure, but, it is a two way with Naidu and Reddy as established strong leaders, and if anything Congress has always had much deeper roots in A.P.

Prakash Karat: My candidate for PM

I have come to like the current CPM Gen. Sec. increasingly. He has the global commie-mindset and has come to realize probably, a la Chevaz is what gets the public going, which means stepping high on the anti-US rhetoric, talking tough, asserting stand...he is still not (thankfully) holding all day television gospels. I think he will make a good PM.

The 'Bush is a Fool' statement is perhaps the most daring statement of the fact (albeit well acknowledged and documented) by a Indian political leader. The last courageous statement I could think of was old man, George Fernandes at the beginning of the Nuclear deal dialogue.

Karat makes me think of possibilities of a commie PM for India. I am no fan of communists and their policies in every area, but, we are caught today with all round weak leadership. On the one side we have the BJP creating new frontiers in senility and on the other side the confused Congress with the young, old, in-between, all in a state of confusion. If the commies are the only strong leaders, maybe it is time they shed their permanent opposition position and took to leading the country. The only person who could have made from their ranks earlier was the immortal Jyothi Basu...he is no longer a candidate and with his strong views, Karat seems to be the next candidate.


Revised Post Gujarat Elections, Dec 2007
With the media repeatedly projecting Modi as the new face of BJP and the central leadership of this party not really in a mood to counter it, I am even more convinced that the coming years will see the emergence of two leaderships in the national mainstream, an increasingly assertive left, no longer know-toying, but, leading the Congress (or dropping it if need be for a Third Front with regional allies) under Karat and the committed right wing BJP, willing to take a different stand from RSS on issues, but, definitely clear in its orientation perhaps with Modi on the lead! I am even more inclined post-Gujarat elections that Karat may be the best bet in the coming years. The Congress loss in the Centre may finally bring to end the Nehru dynasty rule. This can only change if some of the regional players do take some daring steps, Mayawati, Uma Bharathi, Chandrababu Naidu, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Lallu may be the men and women to watch out for, but, for them to make a national difference, it would require any two or more of them to work in tendem, that currently looks near impossible. So, coming times will see Karat Vs. Modi. My choice stays as of now.

The Indo-US Nuclear Deal: A Time in History where things could have gone the other way...

Maybe my last post on this issue. Just to summarize and also share some of the things I have been reading. I had thought that the conclusion on this deal was foregone (My posting in late August which has since then come true). But, there are disturbing trends that need to be understood by all of us in India.

1. The 'we don't care' attitude of the Congress Party on this issue needs to be noted. There is little that has changed since August when the Left first came up with objections to the deal, which means, the new found arrogance in the congress leadership must stem from something else. Could it be that they have found out that in the case of an election, they stand a chance to win without much ado? I am sure intelligence agencies and back room technical boys in the Congress are capable of doing a month long job to come up with such conclusion, the time gap for the change in the Congress posture seems to be just right.

But, perhaps there are other reasons too. The recent issue of Tehelka carries an interesting news item, 'Young Brigade Goes Nuclear' which talks about the new bunch of young Congress leaders owning up the Nuclear Deal . Though the article carries interview with only one of the leaders named, if this is to be taken at face value, it is bad news. The Nuclear Deal somehow seems to have become associated with the 'paradigm shift' in the Congress. Nothing is more stupid than a young bunch of new comers talking of paradigm shift owning up to a deal that provides many opportunities for jingoism and showmanship. More importantly in this article, the Chairperson of Congress Future Challenge Committee is talking about 'creating a new USP' for the party! Nuclear Deal is the new USP for the old Congress! (USP for the uninitiated is a marketing term that means Unique Selling Proposition, used to promote the one feature in any product that needs to be communicated to the customer as being unique and ahead of the competitor, it is often a publicity gimmick as the fundamental product can only change itself in so many ways). Corporations provide for such flexibilities, a national government that is already fractured in its inheritance cannot. Certainly not a party that is responsible for much of the fracturing.

2. I am still to come across anyone of our nuclear deal promoters who thinks of this as a complete, cost-effective or clean solution. The entire debate has been dominated by scientists-technocrats who have an undying fascination for trying out latest technical possibilities and bureaucrats who are chest thumping about how this is a great deal that they have brokered, leave alone the fact that USofA does not get pushed by a piddly platoon of IAS officer from India. Obviously, the safety of the technology and the nitty-gritties of the deal have covered more print space than the priority and ethics of the deal.

I have been trying to understand the larger issues related to nuclear energy, if indeed energy is our problem for which we think this is the only solution as some of our eminent scientists want us to believe. (My earlier post on the on-line references) It was good to note that the Communist leaders too seem to be doing their homework on this issue to some extent (my posting on Sitaram Yechuri's article). Personally for me, an eye opener was reading the book, 'The Nuclear Barons' by Peter Pringle & James Spigelman. This book is a must read for anyone wanting to understand as the authors put in the sub-title, 'how (the nuclear barons) created our nuclear nightmare'. How the entire nuclear research, bomb and technology has been developed through scientific ambition, often mis-placed political ideas by technologists, political jingoism and commercial greed. Though this publication is two and half decades old, its gripping narration style and factual presentation makes it invaluable in understanding the evolution of the nuclear technology. I would like to quote a small portion from the Epilogue of the book that is worth reading:

' the core of the proliferation problem is the expansion of nuclear-generated electricity: more nuclear power plants mean more fissile material available for diversion into bomb projects. There is no way of preventing this at present: the nuclear materials market is too large and too diverse to be controlled through export sanctions and the current early-warning system of a diversion of nuclear material, known as safeguards, is inherently ineffective.

Even withouth the link to nuclear profileration, nuclear power carries dangers of a magnitude that we ought not to accept. There is something profoundly stupid about continuing to multiply a series of engineering marvels that fifteen billion curies of radiation. We do not know enough about radiation and cannot be sure enough of our technical prowess to allow this system to dominate our energy supply. Morever, the instinctive human fear of radioactivity is not irrational, as the nuclear advocates assert; it is also so universal and so enduring that it is a political fact of life.

...The problem as the entire nuclear history illustrates only too forcefully, is that we have never been able to devise human institutions dedicated to minimizing their own activities. We must continue, therefore, to treat the claims of those in charge of the nuclear complex with suspicion; by their past actions they have not earned our trust or our confidence. Their almost compulsive sense of self-importance has been given a serious blow by the strength of the citizen reaction...but it has not been defeated. Those who want to expand nuclear power continue to repeat the old refrain that we have no choice, yet, that has always been wrong and it is wrong today.

The nuclear story so far has been about a scientific and technological revolution that transformed a yarning to understand and control the powers of nature from fiction to fact. It was a stunning achievement of many clever men. What is in question now is not their cleverness but their wisdom.'

3. US of A must be the biggest arms supplier to the world. It has been investing in arms in different parts of the world where it reaps a rich harvest of war in subsequent decades. I see the entire facilitation of the nuclear technological growth in the Sub-Continent as a way of investing in this region, so that in a couple of decades a successor of G.W.Bush may launch another armed search for WMD in India and a war would be justified. Indian government will buy the technology now, buy delivery mechanisms through back door deals later and will be held accountable for the same much later, perhaps politically isolated (not unlike Iraq after Desert Storm), and later invaded and destroyed. This would ensure that the commercial interest of the arms manufacturers in the US is taken care of for the next few decades, not to talk of the Haliburtons to re-build the country after its destruction. This may sound far fetched right now for us in India, but, history with other regional powers since the WWII cannot be denied. If further proof is necessary, then it is provided by Prof. Chomsky in his article on Indo-US Nuclear Deal:

The Indo-US deal mixes military and commercial motives. Nuclear weapons specialist Gary Milhollin noted Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's testimony to Congress that the agreement was "crafted with the private sector firmly in mind," particularly aircraft and reactors and, Milhollin stresses, military aircraft.
(Source: US/Indo Nuclear Agreement: Derailing A Deal, By Noam Chomsky, 08 August, 2007, The Khaleej Times)

4. The mix of young leadership wanting to make a 'paradigm shift' in the ruling party utilizing terms and models of the market, the eagerness of our technocrats and bureaucrats to move the country into another 'club' where there doesn't seem to be a non-destructive precedence and where the partner / promoter nation has clearly stated that they are looking at their own strategic and commercial gains from the entire deal, sounds like being in the middle of a political environment where an expression of the concerns is a statement of helplessness.

We as a nation have placed capacity to produce WMD at such a high level, that a government doesn't mind being pulled down in the process, this has never been done by any government before for any other cause including production of food grains. This moment in the political history can be seen as a point of departure towards accepting the role of a nuclear bully, capable of producing WMD at a speed if it so desires. The role and the script is not ours, nor the raw materials and technologies, but, our political eagerness to perform this role of a nuclear bully will bring in a major shift in our dealing with the world from now on. Time to recall what an old man said 6 decades back:

(Non-Violence) is the only thing the atom bomb cannot destroy. I did not move a muscle when I first heard that the atom bomb had wiped out Hiroshima. On the contrary, I said to myself, ‘Unless now the world adopts non-violence, it will spell certain suicide for mankind.’ - M. K. Gandhi, talk with a British Journalist, Sept 1946

The President Question - Online debate goes even as media seems to maintain a studied silence!

I had written earlier regarding my concerns on the process in which the Presidential candidate was being chosen (Jun 13, 2007, Desicritic - Selecting the Indian President - Loyalty Above Pride) and later with a hope that perhaps whoever is the new incumbent, the good precedence set by Kalam be followed (Jun 23, 2007, Desicritic - Will India Have Another People's President?) .

At that time I was not much focussed on the person being proposed as much as the process of arriving at the proposal, but, the online discussions that have followed since then including a few press reports seem to indicate that there a few skeletons in the cupboard of the current favourite that needs to be looked into. I thought that these are issues that those who proposed (and in this case, decide) names will be careful about. Apparently not, the Business Standard news item talks about a few of the skeletons, bloggers have been far more forthright not having to adhere to any bureaucratic norms or dependent on government advertisements for their survival, so, we have some strong writings, 'Why Prathiba Patil should not be the President', 'You may make her the President...but you cannot make us respect her', 'Prathiba not for President',...resulting in an online campaign that has been launched called, 'India demands answers first'.

As I haven't seen much of this in the regular media and only among bloggers, wanted to flag this.